Investment Markets and Key Developments During the Week
Source: U. S. Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, AMP
Source: Bloomberg, AMP
The RBA’s latest biannual monetary stability review paints a fairly benign picture, although dangers remain beneath the surface. It highlights an increasingly improving global outlook and notes that: while many Australian families and businesses face difficult situations, most are able to pay their debts and cover essential expenses; loan arrears are increasing but remain very low; and the monetary formula remains resilient. The main risks he is tracking are the slowdown in the real estate sector in China, difficult situations in real estate advertising (he notes that Australian banks are less exposed than before) and weaker macroeconomic situations. complicated. When it comes to how families cope with higher borrowing rates, the RBA goes on to estimate that around 5% of families with an adjustable rate loan have an essential loan and living prices above their source of income ( refer to the following graph that appears from the FSR). Based on its forecasts in last month’s Monetary Policy Statement (which predicted emerging genuine wages, falling money flow rates and emerging unemployment), the RBA believes this would remain the case for some time. longer before starting to decline at the end of this year (blue emissions). Even in a situation of high inflation over a longer period, with the money rate 0. 5% higher than expected in February, the RBA estimates that the proportion of households with negative money flow will only rise to just over 6% before falling next year. (Red dots).
Major Global Economic Events and Implications
The March business PMIs (which are global business surveys) were combined across the major countries: up in Europe (though still weak), Japan and Australia, but down in the US. and the UK (though still to decent degrees for both). Across the G3, they have increased slightly and in degrees are consistent with slow growth. G3 input and output costs have risen slightly (mainly driven through the U. S. ), but both remain well below their highs as order books continue to decline and lead times (shipments notwithstanding). problems of the Sed Network and Panama).
Source: Bloomberg, AMP
In addition to the continued strength of the US PMI, the US Peninsula has been able to find a solution to theU. S. Economic Knowledge, Other U. S. Economic Knowledge, and Other U. S. Economic Knowledge U. S. stocks tend to be solid. The manufacturing sector situation in Philadelphia improved although less than expected, the Conference Board’s February leading index fell for the first time in two years, jobless claims remain weak, the situation of homebuilders improved in March, home construction rose sharply in February, and existing home sales increased 9. 5%. A chart showing the value of the home.
Source: Bloomberg, AMP
Source: Bloomberg, AMP
Australian Economic Events and Implications
Another puzzling report on employment in Australia, with employment rising and unemployment falling, but is it credible?The ABS attributes the volatility to adjustments in seasonal trends around December/January, with more people than usual people between jobs then returning to paints in February. This boosted employment and hours worked and brought unemployment down to 3. 7% (just above its nearly 50-year low of 3. 5% seen in 2022-2023). Unemployment is probably not as high as January’s 4. 1%, but probably not as low as February’s 3. 7%. The trend continues to be upward and this is evident in the underutilization of the labor force, which has fallen from a low of 9. 4% to 10. 3% and is a major indicator of the labor market.
Source: ABS, AMP
In addition, our leading employment indicator continues to point to a slowdown in task expansion due to declining vacancies and hiring plans. Given the volatility in task data, the RBA will most likely be cautious about reading too much, so we don’t think this will prompt it to reset its restrictive bias. Hopefully, the March task data, which will be released at the next RBA meeting in May, will provide a clearer picture.
Source: ABS, AMP
Australia’s trade conditions PMIs for March rose as strength offset weakness in the production sector. Interestingly, new orders and employment fell slightly. However, the good news for inflation is that input and output costs have fallen slightly, although they are still a bit high, basically due to Array
Source: Bloomberg, AMP
The most powerful population expansion since the 1950s continues. Australia’s population grew at a record rate of 659,800 people in the year to the September quarter, or 2. 5% year-on-year, its fastest rate since the 1950s. Again, growth was driven by immigration (with 548,800 more people), while natural growth remained subdued (with 111,000 more people). Increased immigration has likely been a major factor in maintaining the economy’s growth in the face of rate hikes and cost-of-living pressures. and it has helped to alleviate labour shortages, but it has done nothing to increase GDP in line with the capita (which is in recession) and has contributed to increasing demand and inflation and the maximum probably led to an increase in line with interest rates. The tensions are most evident in the housing deficit and therefore in rising rents and record property prices.
Source: ABS, AMP
We may be close to peak immigration, but the housing deficit will get even worse. Monthly data on arrivals through January suggest that net migration remains at record levels. Although it is expected to slow as the maximum reopening of student arrivals peaks amid stricter visas. , the government’s forecast of 375,000 net immigrants for this fiscal year is most likely far exceeded, as it has most likely already noticed around 285,000 immigrants in the first six months alone. At the same time, existing immigration levels mean an underlying housing need of about 220,000 or more homes per year and so, with completions of about 170,000 per year, we continue to add to the housing deficit.
Source: ABS, AMP
What to watch this week?
Investment Markets Outlook
Important note: Although every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, neither National Mutual Funds Management Ltd (ABN 32 006 787 720, AFSL 234652) (NMFM), AMP Limited ABN 49 079 354 519 nor any another member of the AMP. Group (AMP) does not represent or guarantee the accuracy or completeness of anything contained therein, including, but not limited to, any predictions. Past functionality is not a reliable indicator of long-term functionality. This material has been prepared with the objective of offering general information, without taking into account the specific objectives, monetary situation or wishes of any investor. An investor should, before making any investment decision, consider the suitability of the data contained herein and seek professional advice, taking into account his or her objectives, monetary situation and wishes. This document is intended solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided. This curtain is not intended for distribution or use in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to applicable laws, regulations or rules and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, solicitation or invitation to invest.
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Increases across all areas of Deep Leads resources: quality, tonnage and target area ABx Group has reported a 30% increase in its Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) at the Deep Leads Ionic Adsorption Clay (IAC) rare earth deposit in northern Tasmania. The accumulation in MRE comes from 36 extension wells analyzed, representing a significant northward extension for the existing Deep Leads prospect.
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