President Trump’s favorite communications platform has failed. It’s a moment.
In one of the top election models of 2020, researchers at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management used Twitter knowledge to expect a surprising victory for Joe Biden if the election were held now.
At the time, Biden led with 334 electoral votes, and Trump had states worth 132 votes, according to the school’s Public Echoes Of Rhetoric In America project. About 72 are for releases, adding Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
The most classic model, state surveys, recently shows Biden earning 272-107, based on the 270 average in Win. By comparison, the FiveThirtyEight caused Hillary Rodham Clinton to win 302 electoral votes against Trump’s 235.
The style focuses on Twitter’s knowledge of the 12 battlefield states expected for the election: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.
He said his Tweeterboard was important because he “measured the pulse of public conversations about the politics of the crusade.”
The school plans to have an update every two weeks.
“Trump has replaced the way social media, but especially Twitter, has influenced politics. We would like to know if your use of Twitter can be quantified and used to increase the effects of surveys and elections,” said researcher Meagan O’Neill. “Throughout the election cycle, we will use Twitter’s knowledge to identify occasions that reflect adjustments in support,” he said.
“Political tweeters are opinion leaders,” said associate professor Michael Cornfield, “and who and what they’re talking about provides clues as to what voters think.”