Tesla (TSLA) has warned investors that it is between waves of expansion lately, which may only be its 50% guided expansion rate.
The growth Tesla has experienced in terms of vehicle production and deliveries over the last decade is undeniably impressive.
Tesla has grown from an underfunded EV startup to the world’s highest-value automaker, with the capacity to produce 2 million new EVs a year.
That carries a lot of credibility, and that’s why more people took them seriously when they told investors they planned to grow at a rate of around 50% a year.
That’s the rate of expansion you’d expect from a successful software startup: a primary automaker that generates a highly complex product like an electric vehicle.
It didn’t make any sense, but investors believed in it because Tesla has completed a lot of other things that were thought of almost before.
However, Tesla is now pouring some cold water on the guided expansion rate.
Tesla investor Gary Black reported new comments from the Tesla investor at a recent investor conference.
He said Tesla had warned that it is now “in an intermediate era of low growth. “
Martin Viecha, Tesla’s head of investor relations, clarified this comment in reaction to the post:
What I’ve said in particular is that we’re between two major waves of growth: the first driven through the 3/Y platform since 2017 and the next one that will be driven through the next-generation vehicle.
Tesla has always said that the “~50% growth rate” would be long-term and could vary from year to year.
Specifically, the long-term goal is to reach an annual production capacity of 20 million cars by 2030.
Viecha’s comment makes sense. Tesla doesn’t seem to want to grow particularly with its current lineup of vehicles.
The Cybertruck was expected to shake things up, with an expected capacity of 250,000 units.
I’ve said that there needs to be more electric vehicles so that other people of all income levels can choose. GM has had great luck with the Bolt and wants to see more features like this. Unfortunately, it’s not uncommon to see new electric cars with a base price above $50,000, which virtually eliminates a large segment of potential buyers.
I think once Tesla (and other automakers) have quality electric cars that cost less than $30,000, there will certainly be a lot of growth, probably of the kind that Tesla hasn’t noticed yet, and this will only increase the adoption rate. and minimise our carbon footprint.
Tesla really needs its next-generation vehicles, especially the cheaper “$25,000 Tesla,” to go back to significant growth.
The challenge is that we don’t know when those next-generation cars will arrive. We know that production lines are evolving at Gigafactory Texas as I write this, but it may still take years.
This “low-growth middle era” may last only a few years.
What do you think? Let us know in the comment segment below.
Fred is Editor-in-Chief and Senior Editor at Electrek.
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