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In the worst case, Apple’s annual iPhone deliveries could drop by 25 to 30% if forced to remove WeChat from its App Store worldwide, according to a new research note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noticed through MacRumors. The deletion may be due to a recent executive order prohibiting U.S. transactions with WeChat and its parent company Tencent.
Kuo presents positive and pessimistic scenarios depending on whether Apple is required to remove WeChat from the App Store in the United States or whether the ban would apply to the “App Store” in all countries.
WeChat works incredibly with Chinese mobile users, operating primarily as its own platform over iOS and Android for many users, and Kuo argues that a global WeChat ban on the “App Store” would be devastating due to the length of the Chinese market. Training
Because WeChat has become a daily necessity in China, integrating purposes such as messaging, payments, e-commerce, social media, news reading and productivity, if that is the case, apple hardware product shipments to the Chinese market minimize significantly. We estimate that annual iPhone shipments will be reviewed downwards from 25 to 30%, and annual shipments of other Apple hardware devices, adding AirPods, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac, will be reviewed downwards from 15 to 25%.
In his positive situation where WeChat gets rid of only the US “App Store,” Kuo predicts that “iPhone” shipments would be affected by between 3 and 6%, while other Apple products would be affected by less than 3%.
Apple does not break down its iPhone shipments by region, however, in general, Greater China accounted for just over 15% of Apple’s overall profits in the June quarter. This raises questions about how changes, mainly in this market, can have such a significant effect on Apple’s overall business, even explaining the decline of large weChat users in other markets around the world.
In any case, Kuo recommends to investors its inventories of Apple’s home chain corporations, such as LG Innotek and Genius Electronic Optical, due to the dangers of a WeChat ban. However, it remains to be noted what will happen, since the prohibitions laid down in the decree do not take effect until 20 September. Therefore, there is still time to clarify, modify, or reverse the order.
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