Epic has intentionally banned Fortnite at Google Play and iOS app outlets by updating the game with tactics to pay Epic directly for V-bucks, rather than through Apple and Google. The next step in his plan was to file two lawsuits against the two companies, arguing that the cellular market is anti-competitive and is controlled through those two monopolies that offer no other option and require a 30% tax on all games and maximum applications.
But the challenge is about to turn very quickly for Epic. The game has two weeks before the release of next season, and the game can no longer be updated through the App Store. While players would likely play trapped in previous seasons, they won’t be able to access new or new cosmetics. This will end up with the game on mobile devices, unless the look is loaded through the release of Epic on Google, but who knows how many other people will know how to do this. It should not be playable on Apple devices.
The concept of Epic is that when millions of players realize that the game is on mobile, they will create an emotion that will draw attention and make their arguments even more widely heard.
The challenge is … what is the situation here, if Epic holds up?
Let’s say they keep Fortnite out of the App Store by not meeting the needs of Apple and Google, which is a little mandatory for everything to work. How long does it take to continue with this test? How long does it take for regulatory action to be taken and the 30 cents compatible with rebate to be reduced or eliminated in any way? Not months, but years, at most, given the speed at which those things are evolving, and corporations like Apple and Google have the resources and wisdom to take that even further. In no way does this seem to be a scenario with a quick fix in sight.
As such, Epic will lose Fortnite’s revenue. Many Fortnite income.
To date, according to Sensor Tower estimates, Fortnite has reached 133.2 million facilities and generated $1.2 billion in spending on the iOS app store. In the last 30 days alone, 2.4 million facilities and $43.4 million in revenue. The numbers are declining on Google, 11 million in total with $10 million in expenses, which comes with third-party sideloading.
But yes, it’s … an incredible amount of cash to give up. It’s true that some Fortnite players can simply transfer to another device, laptop, transfer or console to play, so Epic doesn’t lose them completely. And yet, obviously we’re talking billions of dollars in potential revenue losses, possibly north of one billion, depending on how long Fortnite lasts and how long Fortnite is rarely available on peak mobile devices. I sense that Epic is looking to make a point, but they are doing so without an end in sight for this fight and with prospectively profound and rapid effects on their results. And billion-dollar corporations like Apple and Google are willing to wait for them as long as you can imagine and fight them every step of the way.
I’m not saying that Epic deserves not to do that, as I think someone had to do at some point, however, it will have a genuine position for the company, if it goes as I think. This sounds different from fights beyond Epic. Their war with Steam only allowed them to create a store of choice, which obviously brought them money, rather than wasting it. Their war against console cross-gaming would probably have bothered a company like Sony, but Sony and Microsoft have never banned Fortnite, nor have they approached that. And the acceptance of crossplay has not had a direct effect on the effects of these companies, such as Epic after 30% of the App Store’s release for Apple and Google. It’s a totally different game.
Wild times. I have no idea what will happen next, but I think Epic will start to feel the burn before Apple and Google, at this rate.
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I write about video games, television and the Internet.