Vice President Kamala Harris tied with former President Donald Trump in early election odds for the first time Thursday, according to the site Polymarket, as polls show Harris gaining ground in key states and other sites put her well ahead of Trump.
Polymarket showed Harris and Trump tied Thursday morning for the first time since Harris filed her presidential campaign, even though Trump has since regained a narrow lead.
Polymarket allows bettors to buy shares for the candidate they think will win, giving them the option to cash out if those shares increase in price or wait for election effects to get a potentially larger payout.
As of Thursday morning, Trump had a narrow lead, 50 cents, to Harris’ 48. 9 cents, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , with 0. 4 cents.
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Harris took her first lead over Trump on rival betting platform Predictit last week, and has since taken a big lead over Trump there. Like Polymarket, bettors who bet on Predictit applicants get financial values for each option between 1 and 99 cents (Harris was trading at 56 cents versus Trump’s 47 cents on Thursday, and Kennedy at 2 cents).
Less than a month after announcing her candidacy, Harris has risen on the ballots against the former president, making up for lost ground after ballots showed Biden trailing Trump following his disastrous performance in the June debate. An NPR/PBS News/ The Marist ballot released this week shows her leading Trump by 48% to 45% (margin of error of 3. 3 points), while a Morning Consult ballot finds her with an increase of 48% to 44% (margin of error of 1 point). On the Morning Consult ballot Harris appears leading Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, though other ballots imply that the race in those states remains a draw-up. A Fox News ballot released last week found Trump and Harris tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Trump gaining one point in Wisconsin and two points ahead in Georgia.
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