There are still signs of revival in the Chinese and Japanese economies, and the two activity surveys seem to indicate an improvement in March.
The official survey of giant enterprises conducted through the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) produced the most attractive results, and in March China’s production activity emerged for the first time in six months.
The other survey conducted by business magazine Caixin showed a further expansion of activity. This survey questions small and medium-sized enterprises and is more than the NBS survey of the last two months.
The NBS’s output survey showed a rise to 50. 8 in March from 49. 1 in February, above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction and beating a forecast of 49. 9.
The official non-manufacturing survey produced more potent effects for China’s fast-growing sector (which includes the declining structural sector) and structure, emerging to 53 from 51. 4 in February, marking the highest figure since September last year.
The combined survey also showed an improvement: it rose to 52. 7% from 50. 9% in February, but below market estimates of 53. March’s figure is the most productive since May 2023.
The Caixin survey showed the most powerful expansion in thirteen months with a reading of 51. 1 (up from 50. 9 in February).
The result beat analysts’ forecasts of 51. 0 and marks an expansion for the fifth straight month.
Production expansion and new orders accelerated last month, according to the PMI survey. External demand also recovered, bringing the indicator of new export orders to its level since February 2023.
Business confidence for the coming year has risen to its point since April 2023.
However, companies have been cautious about hiring employees and the corresponding sub-index has remained negative since August last year.
Economic data on GDP for the first quarter and March will be released next week and early next week.
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At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed an increase in confidence in the country’s sector.
In fact, the effects showed that business confidence among Japan’s primary non-manufacturing sectors advanced to its point in more than three decades in the first quarter.
But confidence among major automakers deteriorated for the first time in four quarters, partly due to disruptions in car production, according to the Tankan survey.
The effects of the survey will be highlighted ahead of the Bank of Japan’s next policy meeting on April 25-26, after the central bank abandoned negative interest rates and began tightening financial policy at its March meeting.
The knowledge will be incorporated into the central bank’s updated economic forecast after the country canceled its 2023-24 fiscal year on Sunday.
The overall confidence index for primary brands fell to 11 in March from 13 in December, the tankan survey showed, with an average market forecast of 10.
The index measuring confidence in non-manufacturing primary sectors advanced to 34 in March from 32 three months ago, beating the market forecast for a reading of 33.
This is the highest figure since August 1991, when Japan’s booming economy after an inflated asset bubble began to collapse at the time, generating the country’s unwanted 30 years of pessimism.
Big brands and non-manufacturing sectors expect the scenario to worsen over the next three months, according to the survey.
Large corporations said they plan to increase capital spending by as much as 4. 0% in the fiscal year that begins in April, with a median forecast of a 9. 2% increase, according to the survey.
Japan’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 0. 4% in the December quarter of 2023, narrowly avoiding a technical recession as investment spending offset weak household consumption.
Analysts expect the economy to have expanded slightly in the March quarter, as the emerging burden of life damage and production disruptions at some auto plants weighed on commercial output.
But the biggest wage increases in more than a quarter-century came during the annual spring negotiation period, from January to March, and that doesn’t appear to have influenced sentiment in the latest Tankan poll.
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