The U. S. economy has experienced an era of growth.
Unemployment is low and wages are rising.
So, it might seem like a time to talk about the demanding situations and dynamics of workforce conversion, but make no mistake: macroeconomic trends observed through policymakers, economists, futurists, and workforce experts of all stripes demand serious reflection on how we can prepare young people to thrive in the economy of the future.
I recently had the opportunity to talk about the conversion landscape with one of the leading experts on converting painting skills: Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute. Matt has committed his career to understanding and advancing opportunity and justice through his skills. His paintings The field of real-time labor market data have provided new insights into how work is becoming and how systems are preparing for the future.
Our exchange has been edited for length and clarity.
Vicki Phillips: Matt, thank you for speaking with us. The world is transforming beneath our feet, but we are seeing strong accelerations in different areas when it comes to how we inform and work. Give us an idea of the key issues that you think will shape the future.
Matt Sigelman: Thank you, Vicki.
First, I would mention generative synthetic intelligence (GenAI). New GenAI teams will have an effect on almost any and all sizes of the hard work market, as a wide diversity of responsibilities are automated or augmented through AI. Notably, unlike past waves of automation, GenAI will have an effect on administrative tasks that in the past we thought were more immune to automation, even as the percentage of the U. S. workforce with a school education has increased. respond to the drastic productivity innovations enabled through AI by downsizing, which can cause widespread disruption across the economy and abundant hardship for many employees and their families.
At the same time, we also believe that the increased power generated through GenAI may simply drive new demand, as some projects become more affordable. For example, most corporations have vast reserves of knowledge that they leave untapped because they don’t have the ability to analyze. he; GenAI enables knowledge scientists to be more efficient, making those incremental analyses more cost-effective. In addition, in some areas, GenAI can democratize access to employment, reducing learning curves that have traditionally been barriers to work, especially for other people from marginalized communities. .
Second, an evolving landscape of capabilities. The immediate speed of technological disruption means that the skills available to staff may no longer match those needed by employers. Our studies indicate that, on average, 37% of the top skills demanded by employers for a given profession have been replaced. Only in the last five years, and the speed of replacement will only accelerate. How can the staff maintain such a deep dynamism?It is vital to note that our educational infrastructure is not evolving as rapidly. In fact, it’s not true that 37% of U. S. school and college curricula have been replaced.
And thirdly, demographic change. Advanced economies are experiencing slowing population growth, declining labor force participation, and aging with accelerated retirement rates. It is unclear where the staff of tomorrow will come from, and this may be just one major obstacle to further economic expansion.
VP: It sounds like a big change, all at the same time, and it resonates deeply with what we’ve noticed in our attitude within elementary and middle school and beyond. From your point of view, where is the United States?Is our school formula up to those challenges?
MS: The state of readiness of the U. S. education systemUU. es mixed. One of the most urgent and demanding scenarios when preparing for a future career will be GenAI. Fortunately, K-12 education in the EE. UU. es effective in helping students expand key foundations. Skills (critical thinking, communication, teamwork, etc. ): skills that our studies believe will be most vital as GenAI is an imperative component of the workforce.
On the other hand, our current school systems are largely static and not adapted to new capabilities. At the same time, schooling is largely provided on an ad hoc basis, which is not suited to a highly dynamic labour market. . We teach other young people and then let them into the world, not realizing the importance of continuous skill development.
The investments we make to prepare students for careers are not aligned with opportunity. Our study with ExcelinEd found that only 18% of certifications earned by students in career and technical education systems are actually requested by employers for smart jobs.
Employers will be offering some education, even if most of their education budgets are spent on compliance systems and education; What they offer is presented as a merit and is therefore regularly underutilized through design, rather than seen as a basic investment in human capital.
In addition, lanes are limited. Workers who are unable to attend university have fewer opportunities for mobility, growth and lifelong learning, and lack counselling resources. This lack of advising infrastructure means that the strengths of the school formula are underexploited as students and scholars struggle to make informed functions possible. about what topics to examine and how to prepare for career opportunities.
VP: I’m a deeply solution-oriented person. Given these demanding situations and dynamics, in your opinion, in what direction are career-related education, pathways to employment, etc. , going?Do you want to evolve in the U. S. ? What is the U. S. government in response?
MS: First of all, we want to achieve alignment between the labor and school markets.
Ensuring that higher education systems expand the capabilities that employers want and want will increase student confidence. In addition, policymakers will place greater emphasis on those systems and allow employers to partner more with educators. Our studies have shown that some of the fastest-growing higher education disciplines are computer science and engineering, suggesting that academics are already moving in this direction. But most continue to end up in study systems with a high risk of underemployment and graduates’ asymmetric income histories. It is the duty of educators to update their program offerings accordingly.
Second, technical and vocational education programs are now booming. This boom means that students, employers, and educators are struggling to determine which of those systems carries weight. Data-driven assessments of those systems are needed to highlight the systems that are valuable. It is imperative to create more physically powerful non-academic employment pathways, which provide greater opportunities for teams that have traditionally had more limited access to classical higher education.
Third, expanding apprenticeship, internship and cooperative systems can provide academics with hands-on experience, making schooling more applicable and with better task prospects. We’re already seeing a really extensive expansion in apprenticeship systems for “white-collar” staff that can position students in fast-growing, high-paying careers. Our studies show that students who earn paid internships have a much lower risk of underemployment, while schools with high internship participation rates particularly outperform their peers.
VP: These issues really resonate with what we see as the need for a more cohesive and aligned strategy to improve our public education formula and improve our connections to the art world. And yet, as we have discussed in a position, This world of paintings is rapidly transforming. Students will need greater professional connections and new skills and competencies given the changes underway, especially when it comes to working with AI. What kind of adjustments do you think need to be made to ensure that other young people can work with AI, their careers, and live and thrive with it generally?
MS: As mentioned above, we take into consideration the basic skills to make them more important. These skills—communication, collaboration, writing, critical thinking, etc. ) are the core skills that are cultivated through a liberal arts program. Even staff in STEM fields want a solid foundation in those skills as AI becomes more capable of performing basic technical tasks. Workers will also want to become more flexible and prepare for a rapidly changing job market where the skills they want to succeed aren’t necessarily what they have today. Embracing a colorful job market and the continuous learning required to thrive in it will help young people thrive thanks to AI, and the core skills discussed above will help them achieve just that.
VP: In many ways, what has been essential will be even more so in the long term that we are headed. Digital communications and the sharing economy have reshaped paintings and employment. COVID presented some other inflection point that in fact, accelerated the rise of remote paintings. And now, Artificial Intelligence is taking a middle ground. I’d like to hear your perspective: What will paintings look like differently in 10, 20, and 50 years?
MS: No one can guess what things will be like 50 years from now, but in the short to medium term, the rise of AI will lead to a fundamental transformation of many job roles. For example, HR professionals can take on the role of coaches. , as many day-to-day tasks, such as benefits administration, are handled through AI. AI’s ability to create audio-visual content will mean that most or all professionals will gain new features, in the same way that spreadsheet software has enabled a much greater number of fewer professional staff to take on knowledge research roles. Such development of AI creates economies of scale that could lead to drastic expansion in certain professions, or even the creation of entirely new projects.
VP: With the relentless speed of AI integration into the workforce, how our education systems evolve to prevent one generation from becoming obsolete will be a cutting-edge topic. The challenge is not only technological but also profoundly human, and requires a reimagined strategy for life. learn. It’s a tall order, but I’m confident we can do it. Matt, thank you so much. Your concepts are difficult and challenging.