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What can be seen on the satellite symbol matches the symbols taken from the ground that were posted on social media earlier today, which show severe damage to the two structures housing the MTFs from Voronezh to Armavir. There is also clear evidence of several radar hits. It should be noted that radar networks are sometimes very delicate and fragile systems, and even limited damage can result in a “mission death”, rendering them unusable for an extended period of time.
https://twitter. com/nukestrat/status/1793996516685926870
https://twitter. com/Tendar/status/1793953144352759974
The date the Planet Labs symbol was taken also coincides with early reports that the Armavir attacks occurred between May 22 and May 23.
At the time of writing, the Ukrainian government does not appear to have publicly claimed responsibility for the attack on Armavir. There also do not appear to be any Russian government officials. Ukrainian forces have already attacked several locations in Krasnodar Krai, which lies just across the Sea of Azov, employing kamikaze drones.
There has been speculation that Ukrainian forces would have possibly targeted Armavir due to considerations over the site’s ability to provide early warning of movements involving U. S. -supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles.
https://twitter. com/FRHoffmann1/status/1793990865662185507
Since secretly receiving a new batch of ATACMS earlier this year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have used those weapons to clever effect to oppose Russian air bases, air defense nodes, and other targets. The newest batch of ATACMS is also made up of longer guns. Longer-range versions than those delivered in the past to the Ukrainian military, allowing it to maintain higher-risk targets.
However, experts and observers have pointed out that DMs from Voronezh to Armavir are constant in their field of view, basically in the southwestern spaces. As an example, in 2013, the Russian government said that the site had detected what the The impression is that it is a ballistic missile launched into the Mediterranean from Libya.
The northern limit of the coverage domain of the two radars would certainly cover the Crimean peninsula, but it resists what the Voronezh-DM, like OTH, can “see” so closely and obliquely, especially if the targets are lower. on the horizon. These radars are primarily designed to detect ballistic missile launches from much farther away.
https://twitter. com/russianforces/status/1793999290265968705
https://twitter. com/krakek1/status/1794008346715939149
Regardless of Armavir’s direct relevance to the confrontation in Ukraine or the exact goals of the attack on the site, it has much wider ramifications. The facility’s two Voronezh-DMs are a key component of Russia’s largest strategic early warning network and their loss, even temporarily, can only degrade the country’s ability to stumble into imminent nuclear threats. There are also concerns about the effect this could have on the ability of Russia’s global strategic precautionary network to assess potential threats and eliminate false positives due to a potential loss of overlapping policies in certain spaces.
https://twitter. com/krakek1/status/1794012218729591021
Beyond that, it has been pointed out that the attack on Armavir could coincide with situations that the Russian government publicly stated in 2020 about moves that could cause a retaliatory nuclear attack. Russia’s early warning network is part of the country’s broader nuclear deterrent.
“Situations specifying the option of the use of nuclear weapons through the Russian Federation” come with any “attack through [a] opposing adversary to sites critical of the government or military of the Russian Federation, the interruption of which would compromise the reaction movements of nuclear weapons. “Two years ago, the Kremlin published the principles of the Russian Federation’s state policy on nuclear deterrence.
This follows the start Tuesday of tactical nuclear exercises carried out by Russian forces in the southern military region of the country, which borders Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry had first announced that the exercises would take place earlier this month and said they were “in reaction. “to provocative statements and threats by some Western officials opposed to the Russian Federation. ” This appears to be a reference to French President Emmanuel Macron, who has said he will rule out sending troops to Ukraine in the future.
https://www. youtube. com/watch?v=Ov2o08yvXxY
The tactical nuclear exercises had already reignited discussions about thresholds for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, a topic that The War Zone had already explored in detail.
It is the latest Ukrainian attack on Russian territory that highlights the vulnerabilities of the country’s air defense network, including around highly prized strategic assets.
It remains to be determined precisely how Russia will respond to the attack on Armavir, which could potentially imply new nuclear signals to Ukrainian authorities as well as their foreign benefactors. It is also unclear whether this attack signals the start of a broader crusade through Ukrainian forces to target strategic military sites with limited direct involvement in the ongoing confrontation and significant importance to Russia’s early nuclear deterrent and precaution mechanisms.
Either way, Armavir will have significant ramifications and may simply be a sign that the fallout from the war in Ukraine is taking a new and troubling form.
Contact the author: joe@twz. com