Updated august 11, adding the article published on August 10.
Following last week’s proclamation through US President Donald Trump, against TikTok and WeChat, Apple’s exposure to the loss of a single App Store has been a subject of much discussion. Behind the possible loss of WeChat likes a more damaging problem.
Despite all the internal engineering and innovation of the iPhone, Apple’s weak spot, the popular one provided only through the App Store, was exposed. Decisions about a single application may be enough to decimate an ecosystem.
August 11 update: Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo analyzed the figures to see how much China’s loss to Apple would affect Apple, which is one of the possible effects if WeChat is removed from the iOS platform. Eric Silvka has Kuo’s comments for MacRumors:
“Since WeChat is very important to Chinese users, because it integrates communications, payments, e-commerce, social software, news reading and productivity features, this resolution will buy ‘iPhone’ shipments in the Chinese market. We estimate that iPhone global shipments are between 25 and 30%. Global shipments of other Apple hardware products, adding AirPods, iPads, Apple Watches, and Mac, will be minimized by 15-25%. »
While WeChat is an excessive example, it is the strength that a single application (and its developer) can have in the iPhone ecosystem.
Under Trump’s executive order for the Clean Netpaintings program, U.S. citizens and businesses will not be able to paint with Chinese TikTok and WeChat applications. Assuming the law is implemented as intelligently as intent (which, on the date of publication, is not given), this means that neither Google nor Apple will be able to supply any of the apps to download on the Android and iOS platforms. Respectively.
And that’s a danger to Apple. No one in China will seriously buy an iPhone if WeChat doesn’t paint on the smartphone. Ben Sin of Forbes addressed the immediate challenge when the decree was issued:
“China is incredibly well on Apple’s monetary results. According to a study conducted through Canalys last year, 20% of Apple’s overall profits come from China and 16% of all manufactured iPhones are destined for the Chinese market. In the first quarter of this year, Apple generated $13.58 billion of iPhone sales in China alone, based on Apple’s first quarter 2020 results.
“It would be fair to assume that iPhone sales in China will decrease dramatically if, for example, the next style of iPhone 12 installs WeChat.”
In fact, this is a transparent and existing danger to Apple’s short-term business style. But in the long run, he talks about a broader danger. Currently, key programs for the daily life of third parties are available on iOS. What happens if an app is removed from the ecosystem? WeChat is an exclusive point of failure for Apple in China. If this falls, the iPhone does the same.
Surprisingly, Android is less sensitive to this problem. Apps can be discovered from sources, not just the Google Play Store. WeChat, TikTok and many others can be uploaded through retailers of choice (such as the Huawei App Gallery) or from direct downloads (an Epic Games strategy used for Fortnite due to 30% commission implemented in purchases through the Google Play Store).
iPhone users don’t yet have the option to use the Apple App Store. With some very complicated routes to jailbreak a phone, your only option to get an app on your Apple device is to pass through the Apple Store. If it’s not in the store, it doesn’t make it to your phone.
Developers are well aware of the disruptions that Apple controls the address to iPhone users, however, the danger of Apple gaining direction from consumers is now amid concerns.
The situation Tim Cook and his team face today seems like a role reversal. Apple needs to distribute an app, but it is not allowed to do so because of a resolution that is not under its control. Apple refuses to distribute programs from small developers to multinationals on a foundation. In this case, the U.S. government machinery plays the role of arbitrator, and Apple cannot factor its own “exceptional case waiver” to authorize an app on the App Store for platform intelligence and for Apple’s monetary success.
The U.S. government is not the only government that can limit the distribution of an application. While Apple is an American company, it has exclusive oversight in the App Store, but other governments can make local decisions. For example, if the U.S. government prohibits WeChat in China, the Chinese government may simply return to diplomatic fire by banning the distribution of popular applications in China.
Finally, there’s the individual developer. Whatever solution Apple makes, if Tencent makes the decision not to make WeChat available on iOS, Apple can’t do much unless you kindly ask for it. WeChat leaving iOS in China would have a similar effect to Facebook leaving iOS in the United States. It is not in the spaces of impossibility that key long-term installations could make the decision not to lean over to fit Apple and just walk.
Arguably, Microsoft and Google have already done so in part, with the distribution of xCloud and Stadia games limited through enough Apple administrative resources to keep corporations away from the platform.
Apple’s technique of “owning” the visitor and allowing developers to access through the App Store has created an ecosystem in which Apple has more about the behavior, appearance and success of programs on the platform. But he has left the option of being hostage to fortune when apps don’t stick to the path Apple expects them to follow.
Whether it’s governments, regional policies, or individual developers, the App Store isn’t as strong as other people’s acceptance; Developers want to know that they can succeed in consumers and consumers want to know they can get the installations they want. If one of those cornerstones is removed, the App Store can become a harmful grinder around the success of the iPhone.
And that’s a danger to Apple’s design.
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